Who's Going To Win Polaris '08?

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Aaron Brophy
Mon, 09/29/2008 - 10:31am

Alrightee, let's guess who's going to win the Polaris Music Prize tonight.

Kathleen Edwards: She's too mainstream and too normal. She definitely won't win.

Stars: They're like The Dears last year — basically half of all rock critics hate them, so they won't have enough support to win.

Weakerthans: They're probably to this year what Arcade Fire and Broken Social Scene were to the last two Polaris years. They're the band everyone's supposed to like, but are just big enough that the music critics will turn on them.

Two Hours Traffic: Their record is my favourite on this list, so they won't win.

Black Mountain: They're too heavy, too over-the-top and too psychedelic for certain wuss-ass segments of the music critic world to handle, so they won't be able to get enough support.

Holy Fuck: Everybody likes the idea of Holy Fuck and I absolutely guarantee that in the grand jury debates there'll be a discussion of how awesome it would be if Holy Fuck won, if only for the joy it would bring music writers as Tanya Kim has to awkwardly explain on Etalk "... and the winners of last night's Polaris Music Prize held in Toronto were the, um, Holy 'F'... um, rhymes with 'puck'..." before they cut away to a segment on what Ryan Reynolds was wearing on his wedding day. Unfortunately, people don't actually like their music as much as they like the shit them winning would stir up.

Plants And Animals: They've got a chance to win, but it's slight. Basically, jury members will vote against them because they're on the same label as Patrick Watson.

Basia Bulat: She's the Sarah Harmer nobody knows yet, which will give her a solid shot at winning support from jurors. Jurors who like her will also likely enjoy Edwards though, and that'll probably split the votes too much for her to win.

Shad: Basically Shad makes the sort of smart, articulate, non-crunky hip-hop that music critics absolutely jizz over. That, and he's the only remotely "urban" artist in the bunch, so he's going to get a lot of votes. Shad has a solid chance.

Caribou: Caribou are just out there enough and have enough music critic goodwill that they're going to get a lot of support. I'm declaring this a two horse race: Caribou and Shad.

Mon, 09/29/2008 - 11:26am — Jen White

Jen White
Mon, 09/29/2008 - 11:26am

I would love it if Plants And Animals won, but I think you're right Aaron -- there will definitely be strikes against them since Patrick Watson won last year.

I think Black Mountain might have a chance, but I don't want them to win. There's just something about them that I don't get. And Stars won't win because their name is too big at this point. This might also hold The Weakerthans down, but again, they're one of my faves and I will be rooting for them! Oh, and they also won at The Verge Awards last week, so maybe they don't need to win both.... Or maybe that will be held against them.

I'm not really excited about the other nominees except for: Shad and Two Hours Traffic. I dunno if Two Hours Traffic are too poppy for the jury, but that album is awesome. And Shad will definitely get a ton of votes.

But I feel like it's anyone's game and I bet the winner will be a complete shocker.

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Mon, 09/29/2008 - 11:29am — Kate Harper

Kate Harper
Mon, 09/29/2008 - 11:29am

I'm thinking either Caribou, Basia or Shad will win.

I think Basia could take it because while a lot of people who like Edwards like her as well, she's a bit less known and her album seems to fit the pattern of the kinda quirky records like Final Fantasy and Patrick Watson, who've won in the past. But then again she's a bit of a "safe" choice. A lot of people like Caribou and they pretty much can do no wrong, so they've got a really solid chance. Shad could take it, too, because of the reasons above and also because Polaris has been critized for being "too indie" in the past. I wouldn't totally count out Two Hours Traffic but then again I'm not sure.

I agree with you about Holy Fuck. That's pretty much exactly why they won't win. I don't think The Weakerthans will win because the record isn't that strong. Same with Stars. Kathleen Edwards is too bland. I can't see Black Mountain winning (and I hope they don't), neither can I see Plants And Animals taking it.

So yeah, Caribou and Shad, but I think Basia also has a really solid chance, too.

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Mon, 09/29/2008 - 2:08pm — doriangraying

doriangraying
Mon, 09/29/2008 - 2:08pm

Bible Code-style logic would place Black Mountain in the winner's circle because of the name of their album - In The Future. Reasons:

1. It has three words in it, just like He Poos Clouds and Close To Paradise.

1(a). In addition, their band name has two words, just like Final Fantasy and Patrick Watson.

2. If you put them all together they make a sentence: He poos clouds, close to paradise, in the future.

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Mon, 09/29/2008 - 2:40pm — Steve McLean

Steve McLean
Mon, 09/29/2008 - 2:40pm

The Weakerthans album was the only one of the 10 to make my list of five finalists, so I would like to see them win. But I think last week's Verge Awards win, and the $25,000 that went with it, will be held against them. The Two Hours Traffic album is my second favourite of the contenders, so I wouldn't mind seeing them win either. But I doubt if they will.